Sun Paper (002078) 2018 Annual Report Comments: 18-year performance meets expectations Internationalization layout accelerates construction of cost advantage

Sun Paper (002078) 2018 Annual Report Comments: 18-year performance meets expectations Internationalization layout accelerates construction of cost advantage

The company released an 18-year annual report: 18-year revenue 217.

6.8 billion, a previous appreciation of 15.

21%, net profit attributable to mother 22.

3.8 billion, an increase of 10 in ten years.

54%; 18Q4 single-quarter revenue of 56.

5.9 billion, an increase of 9 in ten years.

06%, net profit attributable to mother 4.

36 trillion, down 32 a year.

92%, performance is in line with expectations.

Paper prices fell and overlapping costs were high, and the company’s fourth-quarter performance was under pressure: Affected by the acceleration of demand-side growth and increased production capacity, paper prices continued to fall from 18Q2 to the end of 18, according to Zhuochuang Information.The prices of copperplate, offset, and cardboard paper from the high point dropped about 21%, 16%, and 26% respectively. Despite the new capacity contribution, the continuous decline in paper prices accompanied the company’s Q4 revenue growth rate.

From the profit side, due to the impact of the raw material inventory cycle, the actual pulp price cost of the company in 18Q4 is relatively high, so the profit side of Q4 is under pressure.

Regarding dissolving pulp, according to wind statistics, the average price of dissolving pulp in 18Q4 increased slightly by about 63 yuan / ton from Q3, and the profit of dissolving pulp business was stable.

In terms of sales volume, the company’s sales of machine-made paper increased by 297 in 18 years, an increase of 6 per year.

45%; 103% increase in pulp sales, an annual increase of 27.

16%.

The report pointed out that the company’s 20 initial special papers, 30 oriented chemical pulp, 80 high-end cardboard projects, 50 new and new fiber raw materials projects have been put into production, driving the company’s pulp sales to continue to grow.

In addition, the company announced in July 18 that it plans to build a 120-scale papermaking project in Laos. We believe that the commissioning of this project in the future is expected to further enrich the company’s product structure and help the company integrate the leader of comprehensive paper companies.

In 18 years, the gross profit margin decreased quarter by quarter. In the future, the proportion of self-supply of converted raw materials continued to increase, and the price increase of cultural paper was gradually implemented. The company’s profitability per ton of paper increased.

45%, down 2 every year.

58pct, of which 18Q4 single quarter gross margin of 17.
.

33%, down 5 from 18Q3.

81 points.

We think the company’s quarterly decline in gross profit margin in 18 years was mainly due to the decline in paper prices and the relatively high cost of raw materials.

As the company’s new fiber raw 上海夜网论坛 material project reaches production and the natural high-yield biomass fiber project is gradually put into operation, the company’s self-supply ratio of raw materials will further increase, and its cost advantage will become more prominent.

In addition, the price increase of 19Q1 cultural paper has gradually come into effect, and the supply and demand of cultural paper and the competition pattern are relatively better. We judge the profitability of the company’s main paper industry to promote marginal repair.

Profit forecast and investment advice: The company is a leader in cultural paper, with clear capacity planning and high degree of integration of raw materials. It has been a strong growth driver. We maintain the company’s net profit forecast for 19-20 years21.

63/24.

7.8 billion, a new forecast of 21 years of net profit 28.

20 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.

83/0.

96/1.

09 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 9X / 8X / 6X, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk warning: the risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices; the demand of the paper industry is less than expected.