BYD (002594): 19H2 bottomed profit is still optimistic about the high growth of the industry

BYD (002594): 19H2 bottomed profit is still optimistic about the high growth of the industry

Event: The company announced the third quarter report for 2019. In Q1-3, the company achieved revenues of 93.8 billion (ten years +5).

4%), net profit attributable to mother 15.

700 million (previously +3.

1%).

Of which 19Q3 achieved revenues of 31.6 billion (ten years-9).

2%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

200 million (decade -88.

6%), in line with the announcement range of the Air Force Interim Report.

At the same 武汉夜网论坛 time, the company foresees a net profit of return to the mother for ten years in 19 years.

84-17.

7.4 billion, corresponding to a single quarter profit of Q4.

14-2.

4.0 billion, performance under pressure.

1, three quarterly analysis:

Revenue and profit: 19Q3 realized revenue of 31.6 billion (ten years -9.

2%), net profit attributable to mother 1.

200 million (decade -88.

6%), in line with the scope of the Air Force Interim Report; b.

Gross profit margin: Q3 overall gross profit margin 13.

9%, a decrease of 1 from Q2.

4 points, mainly due to the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles; c.

Three rates: sales expense rate 3.

3%, a decrease of 1 per year.

1pct, the chain ratio is reduced by 0.

6pct; management expense ratio 3.

4%, increasing by 0 every year.

8pct, lower than the chain.

2pct, financial expense ratio 1.

6%, reduced by 0 every year.

8pct, which is an increase of 0 from the previous month.

7 points, the overall three rates show a downward trend; d.

R & D expenses: Q3 R & D expenses13.

4 billion, New Year’s Eve 4.

5%, an increase of 11.

8%, corresponding to R & D expense ratio 4.

2%, relatively stable; 2. H2 in 19 was a double bottom of industry sales and profits. Short-term pressure will not change the judgment of the industry’s long-term high growth.

Affected by the substantial and significant contraction in the second half of the year, the new energy passenger vehicles showed a horizontal trend from July to September. Judging from the existing terminal sales and feedback, the industry sales in the fourth quarter are still under pressure, and it is even possibleContinue negative growth.

We believe that the industry is currently in the short-term sales and profit double bottom range. In the future, the high growth of the new energy automobile industry is still optimistic, due to: a.
From the perspective of the supply side, the concentrated assessment of double points in 2020 is only restricted. The industry needs to complete the sales of new energy passenger cars from 1.7 to 1.8 million.At the same time, the double-point review draft for 2021-2024 has also been launched, and the national planning goal has always been to follow the achievement of 5 million new energy vehicles by 2025; b.
Considering the product and demand side, the domestic production of the Tesla Model 3 explosion model started large-scale production. At the same time, luxury brands such as Audi, Mercedes-Benz and BMW successively launched electric vehicles, gradually driving consumer perception and adopting technological progress.With the cost reduction, the defects of electric vehicles are gradually being improved, and the cost advantages will gradually be highlighted. The new models will be gradually launched and driven by explosive cars, and the demand for ToC is expected to rise.

Risk warning: New energy vehicle sales fall short of expectations, commercial vehicles, cloud rail business development fall short of expectations